Cory Booker

Cory Booker is the current mayor of Newark. This documentary is about his failed run for mayor in 2002. This movie helped me better understand the kind of people who choose to run for public office.

There's also a good article about Cory Booker in Time.

Predictions: Obama's Legislative Agenda

Tomorrow night Charlie Rose will host an interview with the staff of Politico, a political website, about the likelihood of the Obama agenda clearing Congress. Many have called Obama's legislative agenda The Big Bang Theory, meaning that the urgency of the economic crisis has spurred democrats to try to pass as much sweeping legislation as possible. Members of Politico's staff will make their predictions on the success of Obama's agenda. I am going to use this opportunity to make my own predictions on Obama's main legislative priorities.

Cap and Trade: Of all Obama's big-ticket legislative priorities, I believe this has the largest chance of failure. While I personally believe that a straight-forward carbon tax would have been a simpler, more effective way of curbing emissions, it would have been much harder politically. That said, I do support the plan for a cap and trade system. Unfortunately, this would be an impossibly hard piece of legislation to pass during good economic times. Republicans are casting this as an economy killer. The bill barely squeaked by House Democrats on a narrowly partisan vote. Time will tell how it holds up under the shaky 60-vote majority in the Senate. My prediction is that this bill will fail.

Health Care Reform: I would probably support most efforts to expand health care coverage to more Americans. I would also support efforts to curb inflation on health care costs. I believe these are the two most pressing issues in America's health care system. (Somewhat conversely, I also support Tort Reform that would reduce damages awarded in malpractice litigation). In addition, today's post-bailout, post-stimulus political climate requires that these goals be met without substantially increasing the size of the federal deficit. As legislation moves through Congress and Republicans increase their criticism, I believe the chances of comprehensive reform are shrinking. Many pundits are claiming, however, that Obama has a backup plan that he will eventually fallback on in the case of a loss in order to claim victory. My prediction is that a less-sweeping version will pass.

Reforming the Financial Regulatory System: After the last two years, I would be astonished if some kind of regulatory reform wasn't passed. The question is what kind of reform it will be. So far, this issue hasn't reached the kind of super-charged political hot-button status as the previous two. It's going to be a long summer and fall, however, and Republicans seem determined to fight the Democrats at every pass (with the exception of Sonya Sotomayor who seems poised for confirmation). Undoubtedly, this battle will begin to heat up. My prediction is that financial reform will pass after a fight and a few compromises.


For those of you who were keeping track--that's no to Cap and Trade and yes on Health Care and Regulatory Reform. This fall, winter and spring we'll be able to look forward to Immigration Reform, Don't Ask Don't Tell, Guantanamo Bay, the future of NASA, Columbia Free Trade Agreement, Eastern European Missile Shield, and maybe Social Security and Medicare. Not to mention Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The Assault on Empirical Journalism

Empiricism is the basic practice of science. Science can be described as empirical because it relies on direct experience or observation in order to describe or explain phenomena. In other words, a scientific or empirical approach is inductive, and bases its explanations upon that which can be directly observed in a replicable or repeatable manner. 1

Empiricism in the news-media is an essential component of a healthy democracy. Robust civil society and a substantive public debate demand a properly informed electorate. Indeed, how could one hope to effectively argue a point when one is not entirely clear on the facts? Unfortunately, the facts are often hard to ascertain in many sectors of today's news-media. I see this as a sign that responsible reporting of empirical evidence is suffering badly. There are several reasons for this.

First of all, traditional media (such as newspapers and weekly news magazines) have been in a long and painful decline. This can mostly be attributed to the availability of news via the Internet, and the rise of Internet classified sites which has resulted in a severe loss of revenue for newspapers. Whatever the cause, newspapers across the country are now skeletons of their former selves. News staffs having been emaciated, many in the industry now worry about the future of in-depth investigative journalism.

The decline of traditional media has coincided with the rise in prominence of cable network news and talk radio. While it is true that there is a small amount of empirical journalism available in these formats (60 Minutes, PBS, NPR, etc.) the vast majority of cable television and radio news-media is opinion-driven. These shows are, by definition, biased in nature. While there is considerable value in being exposed to opposing viewpoints, the preponderance of opinion-based news reporting has the potential to obscure the facts and mislead the audience. (Here is a link to Charlie Rose and Jim Lehrer discussing these concerns about the news-media on PBS).

In addition, it has become popular among some in the opinion-based news-media to take an aggressive stance toward more traditional forms of media. This is an extremely troubling trend. Popular characters such Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly routinely lambaste what they perceive to be biased reporting of facts from the traditional media. Dubbed the "drive by media", Limbaugh persistently and methodically attempts to undermine the credibility of empirical journalism. Granted, it is completely understandable to take issue with a specific piece of sloppy reporting or bad journalism, however, many of these media personalities have developed a malicious and systemized pattern of undermining the very credibility of traditional news reporting (One particular instance of this recently made some interesting news). This is a trend that is harmful to American democracy itself. Taken to the extreme, it results in a less informed, confused and politicized electorate.

Jindal's Response

I really respect David Brooks. He's a conservative columnist and political pundit. Although I don't always agree with him, I'd go so far as to say that he is my favorite conservative in the media.

He's pretty hard on Bobby Jindal's speech, right? But not nearly as hard as nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman in his op-ed piece today ("The party of ideas has become the party of Beavis and Butthead.")

The Writer's Almanac

I listen to NPR a lot. I thought today's episode of The Writer's Almanac was pretty funny. Check it out here. It's pretty short. Listen long enough to hear the poem at then end.

Republicans (Part II) - The Reagan Coalition

States won by John McCain are green. Mit Romney yellow. Mike Huckabee blue.

The so called "Reagan Coalition" can best be described as the coming together of economic, national security, and social conservatives. This confluence of conservative interests has proved to be a durable, lasting, and effective force in American politics. For more than two decades, "The Coalition" has been able to produce a generally agreed upon Republican agenda, which often translated into a large conservative turnout at the ballot box.

One of the most interesting developments of the 2008 election has been the fragmentation of the conservative agenda. Indeed, much has been written on the death of the Reagan Coalition. Perhaps the clearest indicator of this fragmentation could be seen in the three-way primary struggle between John McCain, Mit Romney, and Mike Huckabee. Each candidate representing a different arm of the Reagan Coalition (McCain/National Security, Romney/Economic, and Huckabee/Social Conservative), the scattered primary results offer colorful evidence of the coalition breakdown.

Further evidence could be seen in many Republican's lack of enthusiasm for the candidacy of John McCain. Social and religious conservatives were energized only after the addition of Sarah Palin to the ticket. One could possibly make the argument that McCain never successfully incorporated the economic component of the Reagan Coalition into his campaign. It is important to note that the election ultimately came down to economic issues. One can't help but wonder how things might have turned out if someone like Mit Romney had been included on the ticket.

Republicans (Part I) - Troubling Trends

The Republican party is in danger of becoming a much smaller, regional political party. The results of November's election suggest evidence of several demographic and cultural shifts that are currently taking place within the United States. The Republican party would do well to recognize these shifts and position themselves accordingly.

First of all, Democrats managed to make large gains in several Western states. During the Reagan years, "The Mountain West" was once a Republican stronghold. Over the previous two decades, however, the West (particularly the South-West) has seen some of the nation's largest population growth. With North-Easterners and California transplants looking for a place to settle down, affordable housing and a strong economy made the South-West a particularly attractive destination. In the 2008 election, these migratory trends truly became apparent. Not only did Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico swing to the Democratic category, but Democrats managed to mount a surprising challenge in states such as Montana and North Dakota.

Another challenging trend for Republicans is the overall growth of the Latino population. In previous elections, Mexican and Latin American voters were fairly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. As the debate over illegal immigration has risen in profile, however, Republicans are in serious danger of losing whatever Latino support they once held. Indeed, in 2008 Latinos preferred Obama and Democrats by large margins.

In addition, the campaign of Barack Obama brought many young voters into the political process for the very first time. In exit polls, young voters overwhelmingly cast their votes for democrats up and down the ticket. Many of these voters could quite possibly remain loyal to the Democratic Party for years to come.

Presidential Politics (Part III) - The Third Party Candidate

Ralph Nader (Independent) and Bob Barr (Libertarian)

2008 was supposed to be a big year for third party candidates. There was a lot of early speculation regarding the billionaire mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg (Democrat turned Republican turned Independent) making a third party run. This eventually fizzled out, but the talk of a strong third party candidate was kept alive by the candidacy of Republican Ron Paul. Ron Paul tapped into something powerful among a certain brand of disaffected small-government and libertarian-leaning conservatives. His run for president was never a serious possibility, but he did manage to achieve something significant in running a campaign that demonstrated disillusion among many conservatives with the republican party.

Although Ron Paul declined to continue running after the Republican primary, disillision among a key group of voters was evident and the door was left open for some other third party or independent candidate to take up where Ron Paul left off.

Today there are multiple parties trying to get their candidates on the ballot in states across the county. Most notable among them are Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr. Nader has been a household name since 2000--when he was accused of siphoning enough votes away from Al Gore in Florida to effectively tip the election in George Bush's favor (as a result, many liberals who might otherwise consider Nader now resent his presence in the race). Bob Barr is a less known former congressman and republican from Georgia. As the libertarian nominee he represents the third largest political party in America. Many hoped that his candidacy would be able to tap into Ron Paul's energetic base of supporters. Many predicted a strong national showing and possibly even crossing the 5% threshold in his home state of Georgia (possibly enough to tip the state to Obama). To date, however, Bob Barr's candidacy hasn't lived up to expectations. It appears there is likely to be no Ross-Perot-like-character this time around.

Presidential Politics (Part II) - John McCain and The Republican Party

The Republican Party was not ready for a candidate like John McCain. His personality and opinions are considerably different than those held by most rank and file party members. In order to win over the conservative base, I believe that McCain has been forced to run a campaign that is contrary to what he's been in the past and who he desires to be as a candidate.

In the 2000 election, John McCain cast himself as a "maverick" willing to defy party orthodoxy and work across party lines. After his defeat to George W. Bush, McCain spent the next eight years reinforcing and cementing this reputation. McCain defied the Republican party on dozens of issues including immigration, campaign finance reform, taxes, capping carbon emissions to reduce global warming, etc.

During last year's primary, the Republican party went against their own interests on several issues and nominated John McCain. Although it was probably a fluke through a bizarre twist of circumstances, many pundits said this was the smartest thing the party could have done considering the country's anti-republican sentiment. Indeed, John McCain probably was the republican's best shot at overcoming the odds.

Unfortunately, the John McCain of 2000 has been hemmed in by powerful elements within the party (Rush Limbaugh, James Dobson, etc.). In order to stave off a right wing insurrection, McCain has been forced to run a campaign that is contrary to his nationally known persona. The most visible evidence of this was in his choice for vice-president. It is reported that McCain was strongly considering his good friend and fellow independent Joe Lieberman for the job. This would have been a choice more consistent with his campaing in 2000. If it weren't for an uproar in the right wing media, McCain may well have gone through with it. Instead, he capitulated and was forced to appease the base by nominating Sarah Palin (a candidate more resembling George Bush than John McCain).

Indeed, Palin has suceeded in energizing the conservative base of the Republican party. In making this selection McCain successfully avoided the conservative rebellion. The problem is that he simultaneously damaged what was his greatest strength: his "maverick" sensibilities and independence.

The negative campaign that McCain and Palin are currently running more closely resembles the campaing George Bush ran against John Kerry than the one McCain ran in 2000. This style of campaign may have worked in 2004, but the political climate in 2008 is very different (See Part I). It is unfortunate for McCain that he has been forced to appease an element within his party that he so clearly disagrees with.

Presidential Politics (Part I) - Polling Numbers and Economic Meltdown

I've heard it said that historically Republicans are the party of national security and Democrats are the party that is most trusted on the economy. I guess I didn't fully believe this until about a week ago.

I've been watching the polls very closely this election cycle. The race between John McCain and Barack Obama had been a statistical dead heat all summer and fall. The political map had been evenly divided for months. All the evidence suggested that this was going to be a very close election--similar to the previous two, breaking along the same fault lines of 2000 and 2004.

With an economic meltdown underway, however, the lines on the political map have begun to move in Obama's favor. There is now hard evidence to suggest that Obama has begun to break and take a solid lead. States that had been tied for months such as New Hampshire, Colorado, and Ohio now appear to be leaning solidly Obama. Even more surprising, Obama now leads in traditional Republican states where as recently as a week ago John McCain held the lead. Polls in states such as Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Nevada demonstrate the game changing dynamic that the economic mealtdown has had on this race.

In order to win the election, a candidate must reach 270 votes in the electoral college. Barring a dramatic and unlikely shift in the electoral map, there are four states that John McCain absolutely must win in order to come out on top--Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. Barack Obama currently leads in all four of them.

The general election is now beginning to resemble what we saw in the Democratic primary. Much like Hillary Clinton, the math is strongly against John McCain. He still commands the support of a significant percentage of the population. He will undoubtedly fight it out, but overcoming polling numbers like these, in this stage of the election, would be an unlikely feat.